There’s a lot on the line in the NFL regular-season finale between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in the Sunday Night Football odds. Whoever wins this game will lock up the AFC East title. A loss drops the Dolphins to the sixth seed while the Bills can breathe a little easier now that they’ve secured a postseason berth after Sunday’s early action.
While Buffalo is riding high into Week 18 with four straight victories, the Dolphins are licking their wounds after getting obliterated in Baltimore and losing linebacker Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL, adding to a long list of injury concerns for the Dolphins. With momentum on the side of the Bills, NFL odds have them tabbed as a three-point favorite with the game having a total of 49.5.
Let’s get into my free NFL picks for Bills vs Dolphins on Sunday, January 7.
Be sure to also check out our spotlights on Tua Tagovailoa odds and Josh Allen odds! And rounding out our betting slate for the regular-season finale is our Bills vs. Dolphins props.
Bills vs Dolphins odds
Bills vs Dolphins predictions
This is the first time since October 16 of last season that the Miami Dolphins are a home underdog and I think this spread is a bit of an overreaction to their embarrassing Week 17 loss to Baltimore — who many consider to be the best team in the NFL. Yes, there are some injuries to consider for Miami as well, but don’t disregard the fact that the Buffalo Bills barely beat the Patriots last week despite winning the turnover battle 4-1, and the week before, they needed a last-second field goal to defeat Easton Stick and the Chargers.
While last week’s loss in Baltimore is a major black eye for Miami, this is a team that has responded well after a loss where they’ve gone 4-0 straight up with three coming by 14 or more points. The Dolphins are also much better on their home field, where they should be undefeated if it wasn’t for blowing that Monday night game to Tennessee a few weeks ago.
So, there are clearly some arguments in favor of the Dolphins despite the deck appearing to be stacked against them, but it still can’t be ignored that they haven’t been good against good competition. They did get the monkey off their back by finally beating a team with a winning record when they beat Dallas on Christmas Eve, and that game was at home, but the bigger sample size has them at 1-4 vs. teams with winning records this season.
As for the Bills, being reliable isn’t exactly in the DNA either. They have four outright losses as a favorite this season and are just 1-3 against the spread as a road favorite.
One spot that has been reliable between these teams, however, is a lot of scoring in the first half. The last three games between these teams (Week 4 of this season, last season in the Wild-Card round, and Week 15 of last season) saw them combine for 45, 37, and 34 first-half points.
This has also been a hot spot for the Dolphins all season, as they have a league-best 12-4 first-half Over record with their games seeing an average of 29.7 points scored in the opening half.
Buffalo’s offense comes out strong in the first half where it averages 14.1 points, but its defense has seen a bit of a decline on the road when it’s playing a good offense. Combining everything with the injuries Miami is facing on the defensive side of the ball gives us a good recipe to back the first half Over 24.5.
My best bet: First half Over 24.5 (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bills vs Dolphins same-game parlay
First half Over 24.5Josh Allen 300+ passing yardsJosh Allen 1+ touchdown passTua Tagovailoa 1+ touchdown pass
+548 at FanDuel
A rare four-legger for me as we’ll build around that first half Over with two ultra-reliable QB spots and a bit of a swing on Josh Allen to have a big passing day.
As for each guy to throw a touchdown pass, Allen and Tua Tagovailoa each done so in 15 of their 16 games this season.
Allen has also stuffed the stat sheet in recent games against Miami. Back in Week 4, he threw for 320 yards after topping 300 yards in all three games vs. the Dolphins last season, including 400 in the lone game in Miami. Buffalo will be heavily dependent on his playmaking ability against this beat-up Dolphins defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
